Top 10 reasons why Juan Manuel Marquez may defeat Floyd Mayweather, Jr

On September 19, 2009, unanimous current number 2 pound-for-pound fighter, Juan Manuel Marquez, will face former number 1 boxing retiree, Floyd Mayweather, Jr. Vegas odds have the fight favoring Mayweather by a heavy margin, but here are my top 10 reasons why the odds-makers may be wrong and why Marquez may defeat Mayweather, Jr.:

Number 10. Tale of the tape. With the exception of a reach advantage that Mayweather rarely uses in his favor, there is only a one inch height advantage. It is assumed that Floyd, Jr. will rehydrate more after the official weigh-in, but not that much more. I do not expect to see a naturally bigger Mayweather in the ring next month because he simply cannot sacrifice speed in favor of power against Marquez. In "short," this will not be a big guy v. little guy fight, which works to Marquez's advantage.

Number 9. Roger Mayweather. Without question, Uncle May needs mad props for training an exceptional athlete--his nephew. Team preparation was not all that impressive against a declining Oscar De La Hoya though, and a win against the overrated Ricky Hatton came down to nothing more than baiting predictable Rick to walk chin first into a check hook. Team Mayweather also has Roger's recent legal problems as a distraction. Camp drama is never a good thing when preparing to fight anyone let alone an elite class warrior like Marquez.

Number 8. Mayweather's ribs. If we believe him, then Mayweather suffered a rib injury in training camp that caused the original fight date to be postponed. Everything is fine just two months later? If the rib injury is real, then Mayweather will have a chink in the armor that can be exposed.

Number 7. Nacho Beristain. Nacho is part trainer, part drill sergeant. Not that Marquez needs to be motivated, but he will come into the fight absolutely prepared for battle--physically and mentally.

Number 6. Chinny chin-chin. Marquez is like those one of those old Weeble Wobble toys. He goes down, but always pops back up. No man has ever earned a knockout of any variety over Marquez. Aside from Ricky Hatton leading with his chin, Floyd hasn't knocked anyone out since Sharmba Mitchell in November 2005. Don't expect Mayweather to be the first man to knock Marquez out.

Number 5. Work ethic. See also No. 6 above. Like Mayweather, Marquez may be a natural counterpuncher, but he is also a pressure fighter who makes his opponents work every round. If Mayweather cannot knock him out, then Money May better be ready to work for the full 36 minutes.

Number 4. Momentum. See also No. 5 above. A significant portion of Marquez's knockouts have come in the last half of his fights and he is coming off two great wins over Juan Diaz (TKO 9) and Joel Casamayor (TKO 11). He simply will not fade down the stretch like Oscar De La Hoya did.

Number 3. Ring intelligence. Both men have Ph.D.'s in pugilism; however, Marquez has shown that there isn't a fighter who he can't match intellectual wits with. Juan Diaz punished Marquez until Juan Manuel figured him. Once that happened, it was game over for the Baby Bull.

Number 2. Ring rust. Mayweather hasn't fought since December 2007. Up to that point, he was on about a two fight per year average. If his defensive mastery has deteriorated in any way, Marquez will exploit it.

Number 1. Manny Pacquiao. It is safe to say that Marquez is not looking past the Mayweather fight; however, he must fully understand that the only realistic shot he has to secure another date with Pacquiao is by defeating Floyd, Jr. A loss to Mayweather would be catastrophic to that goal and Marquez is as focused as any fighter in the sport today. Some may argue with this point, but Marquez and Pacquiao are better fighters today than they were before they fought each other. They may be rivals, but the hell they both walked through during the 24 rounds that they faced each other was an invaluable education in heart and guts. I'm not sure that Floyd, Jr. is not already looking beyond Marquez to a bigger potential payday with Manny.

Those are my top 10 reasons why Juan Manuel Marquez may defeat Floyd Mayweather, Jr. next month. On Wednesday, I will publish my Top 10 reasons why Mayweather may defeat Marquez. Is it September yet?